THE VOICE OF INTERNATIONAL LITHUANIA
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IS LITHUANIA AT THE
TURNING POINT?
Dr. Gitanas Nausėda is one of the most famous economists in Lithuania. He works as Chief Economist and Advisor to the President of SEB bank. Dr. Nausėda as a professional specializes in monetary and fiscal policy, forecasts of economic processes and financial markets analysis. He has made numerous presentations on these issues in a wide range of local and international seminars and conferences.
Here is what Dr. Nausėda writes in his latest report, ‘Lithuanian Macroeconomic Review’:
Recent trends in industry, transport and other economic sectors make the outlook for 2Q GDP much more promising as compared to the start of 2010. In March 2010, industrial production recorded an increase for the first time in 17 months, by 1 per cent year-on-year, and in April the increase made up 5.5 per cent already. In 2Q 2010, construction sector may turn somewhat more buoyant. It would be naïve to expect significant recovery, but several residential construction projects which were previously temporarily closed-up are back on the stage again. The beginning of 2010 was very favourable for transport companies (except airlines) which are likely to show increasingly good results over the coming quarters. Managers of domestic trade companies still do not dare to forecast growth this year but are not drown in pessimism anymore. However, tough competition continues driving small retailers out of the market due to sharp price-cost scissors. Statistical data announced for the first months of 2010 confirms our earlier suggestion that the start of 2010 will look much gloomier than its end for Lithuanian economy. It is not a coincidence that lately most of market participants that forecast development of Lithuanian economy have revised their forecasts up.
(full report attached)
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