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Jekaterina Rojaka
Chief economist, DnB NORD bank
Lithuania’s consumer price inflation plummeted from 4.6% y/y in July to 4.4% y/y in August. Monthly change stood at -0.4% and was well below the consensus and DnB NORD estimate (-0.2%).
The main reason for drop in inflation was seasonal decline in food prices, as well as prolonged sale of clothing and footwear. Downward slide in producer prices (-1.1% m/m in August) relieves some cost pressures.
Assessment: We expect consumer prices to stay on the downward trend if the oil price holds at circa its current level. In this case inflation is set to slow down to 4% by the end of 2011.
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